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General => General => Topic started by: TheLegendTamer on September 09, 2010, 01:19:07 AM

Title: LSS theory
Post by: TheLegendTamer on September 09, 2010, 01:19:07 AM
Ok, I'm just speculating here. This idea is so crazy, it just might be true.

Myth: SG drop LSS.

I'm thinking "Why would it be dropped by something SOO obvious?". When I think sand sword, I think of those guys (and their smaller counterparts).

So I'm thinking, "Hey, if it's so powerful, why hide it behind something that would be everyone's first guess?". Yah, I mean, so many people hunt SGs now, why hide an ultra rare drop with something hunted down by 10-15 players at once?

So then I think, "Where would I hide it then?" I know! How about something NOBODY hunts?

Blobs!

Think about it. The current SO, even new players fight a few blobs before heading over to places like bandits or temple where other players hang out! The current player probably faces like only 200ish blobs at best on their grinds to level 100!

Even BBBs are hunted more! So many blobs, why would a level 90-100 waste their time on it when it gives so little drops that are available cheap in store and offer so little exp? Easier to drown em (get nothing) and hope a BBB spawns if you're hunting for hammers. Even cacti are hunted more for hammers!

Say you're level 90ish and you kill a blob in like 1 hit. Only 1 person gets past damage threshold to get a drop. Chances of that 1 person getting a super rare drop. LOW. Unlike higher level monsters that get ganged up on and everyone has a chance of getting a low drop.

So, if I were to hide LSS drops, strategically I'd hide it in blobs! Then no one would find out!

Anyone feel like hunting a bazillion blobs?
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: Seifer on September 09, 2010, 01:32:19 AM
Is this serious? Because it feels like spam...
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: Cactuscat222 on September 09, 2010, 01:49:09 AM
Quote from: TheLegendTamer on September 09, 2010, 01:19:07 AM
Ok, I'm just speculating here. This idea is so crazy, it just might be true.

Myth: SG drop LSS.

I'm thinking "Why would it be dropped by something SOO obvious?". When I think sand sword, I think of those guys (and their smaller counterparts).

So I'm thinking, "Hey, if it's so powerful, why hide it behind something that would be everyone's first guess?". Yah, I mean, so many people hunt SGs now, why hide an ultra rare drop with something hunted down by 10-15 players at once?

So then I think, "Where would I hide it then?" I know! How about something NOBODY hunts?

Blobs!

Think about it. The current SO, even new players fight a few blobs before heading over to places like bandits or temple where other players hang out! The current player probably faces like only 200ish blobs at best on their grinds to level 100!

Even BBBs are hunted more! So many blobs, why would a level 90-100 waste their time on it when it gives so little drops that are available cheap in store and offer so little exp? Easier to drown em (get nothing) and hope a BBB spawns if you're hunting for hammers. Even cacti are hunted more for hammers!

Say you're level 90ish and you kill a blob in like 1 hit. Only 1 person gets past damage threshold to get a drop. Chances of that 1 person getting a super rare drop. LOW. Unlike higher level monsters that get ganged up on and everyone has a chance of getting a low drop.

So, if I were to hide LSS drops, strategically I'd hide it in blobs! Then no one would find out!

Anyone feel like hunting a bazillion blobs?

The point behind putting it in the drop table of a large powerful monster is just that... the monster is harder to defeat, and thus yields better equipment. Having more players fighting a boss doesn't increase or decrease the chance that single person will find it - the chance a single person will find it will always be the same. Just statisically, you might see more people with it since it is hunted more, but that is not guaranteed.
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: TheLegendTamer on September 09, 2010, 02:03:34 AM
Not spam. Just crazy speculation.

I didn't make this thread as a joke.

How many blobs are killed by 1 player in a day? How many players keep killing blobs? How many get drops in a day?

NOBODY hunts blobs anymore. NOBODY bothers with blobs. NOBODY would know that it drops it because NOBODY hunts them long enough to get such a drop. That's my reasoning, though flawed and naive. NOBODY is in caps intentionally for dramatic effect.

Is it worth a shot or not? I wanna know what others think.
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: Epsilon72200 on September 09, 2010, 02:43:19 AM
What an odd coincidence...
Just earlier today, I decided I'd go on a blob killing spree for BBBs on my newer account, since I've been having trouble getting a hammer, and well...
I'd say I killed at least 100 blobs, and 7 BBBs, so, while I haven't really killed that many, I haven't gotten an LSS yet, heh.
But who knows... Personally, I think the LSS is a unique item, but I'm hoping it isn't.
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: TheLegendTamer on September 09, 2010, 02:48:54 AM
I hope so too :D. I might go on a blob killing spree.

If they do drop LSS, then lucky whoever-gets-it-first. Because then they get to claim they figured out what drops it... till they read this thread :D.
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: Ko3rMiT on September 09, 2010, 05:02:07 AM
Well, i wondered why i've never seen somebody getting a gs from an sg.
Sure, there are people, who got one, but that was long time ago, actually.
First thing that I thought was that it may have been replaced. You know there are other items, that probably got replaced by a different one:
Rb dropped ss before but during the whole time i tried getting a dkh i never got one. So the dkh probably replaced the short sword.
Since the dagger isn't that rare you should be able to get it easily. But since im playing on the donor server it never dropped from cacti for me, which is kinda strange. So the froggy hat probably replaced this.
so as the ss and the dagger, the gs may have been replaced like this.
I'm not sure whether it got replaced by this sand sword or whatever, but im pretty sure there is a new drop...
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: Seifer on September 09, 2010, 06:33:23 AM
If we went by your idea, than all it takes is one person to get the LSS from a blob, which would eventually happen, and then everyone would easily get one, as blobs are much too easy to kill. So in the end, LSS becomes a very common weapon. I don't think we want this.
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: ARTgames on September 09, 2010, 08:22:37 AM
Nice hypothesis there TheLegendTamer. Test it out and come back to say how it when.  ;)
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: Prosper on September 09, 2010, 12:05:25 PM
Quote from: Ko3rMiT on September 09, 2010, 05:02:07 AM
Well, i wondered why i've never seen somebody getting a gs from an sg.
Sure, there are people, who got one, but that was long time ago, actually.
First thing that I thought was that it may have been replaced. You know there are other items, that probably got replaced by a different one:
Rb dropped ss before but during the whole time i tried getting a dkh i never got one. So the dkh probably replaced the short sword.
Since the dagger isn't that rare you should be able to get it easily. But since im playing on the donor server it never dropped from cacti for me, which is kinda strange. So the froggy hat probably replaced this.
so as the ss and the dagger, the gs may have been replaced like this.
I'm not sure whether it got replaced by this sand sword or whatever, but im pretty sure there is a new drop...


I would think this would explain why Ive spent lvl 15-90 in desert not getting a GS but unfortunately is just bloody rare...

Pawz got a GS from SF in the past 2-3 weeks.
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: TheLegendTamer on September 09, 2010, 04:26:40 PM
We won't ever know for sure till people start killing blobs again right?

But wishful thinking aside, everything said, LSS probably really isn't the monster that would drop it, if it were available as drop anyhow. Though once again, until someone actually goes hunting these blobs, we won't know for sure if they do or do not drop it. Problem is, I'd would too find it more favorable to kill SGs for LSS...

Anyways: Myth yet to be confirmed or denied, that monsters drop LSS at all and that those monsters are SG or Blobs.

If anyone gets an LSS drop post on forums. If anyone gets an LSS from a blob... I dunno, do what you want XD.
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: Seifer on September 09, 2010, 05:29:50 PM
Theres nothing I love more than watching you mortals.
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: Aqua on September 09, 2010, 06:19:40 PM
Quote from: Ko3rMiT on September 09, 2010, 05:02:07 AM
Well, i wondered why i've never seen somebody getting a gs from an sg.
Sure, there are people, who got one, but that was long time ago, actually.
First thing that I thought was that it may have been replaced. You know there are other items, that probably got replaced by a different one:
Rb dropped ss before but during the whole time i tried getting a dkh i never got one. So the dkh probably replaced the short sword.
Since the dagger isn't that rare you should be able to get it easily. But since im playing on the donor server it never dropped from cacti for me, which is kinda strange. So the froggy hat probably replaced this.
so as the ss and the dagger, the gs may have been replaced like this.
I'm not sure whether it got replaced by this sand sword or whatever, but im pretty sure there is a new drop...
The Cacti do drop daggers. I hunted Froggy, and I've gotten 1 frog, 3+ whips, 2+ daggers, 1+ hammers during that time.
Will edit later with thoughts on the theory (which I also share Seifer's above standpoint).
~Aqua
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: Mystery on September 09, 2010, 06:27:10 PM
Quote from: Seifer on September 09, 2010, 05:29:50 PM
Theres nothing I love more than watching you mortals.
If Meiun would just tell us outright we wouldn't have to guess.  :-\ Obviously this theory is BS, just wishful thinking. If it does drop, it drops from either the SF or SG, likelier the SG, with a chance of dropping LSS similar to the BBB's chance of dropping GS. Most likely, it doesn't drop at all and Meiun enjoys toying with us.
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: EpicPhailure on September 09, 2010, 06:36:00 PM
I say it drops from FoG.
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: Lucifer on September 09, 2010, 06:38:35 PM
Quote from: EpicPhailure on September 09, 2010, 06:36:00 PM
I say it drops from FoG.
When the clan system returns, I think this theory will be tested...
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: Seifer on September 09, 2010, 07:15:36 PM
Quote from: Mystery on September 09, 2010, 06:27:10 PM
Quote from: Seifer on September 09, 2010, 05:29:50 PM
Theres nothing I love more than watching you mortals.
If Meiun would just tell us outright we wouldn't have to guess.  :-\ Obviously this theory is BS, just wishful thinking. If it does drop, it drops from either the SF or SG, likelier the SG, with a chance of dropping LSS similar to the BBB's chance of dropping GS. Most likely, it doesn't drop at all and Meiun enjoys toying with us.

We've said it drops...
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: Mystery on September 09, 2010, 07:32:21 PM
Quote from: Seifer on September 09, 2010, 07:15:36 PM
Quote from: Mystery on September 09, 2010, 06:27:10 PM
Quote from: Seifer on September 09, 2010, 05:29:50 PM
Theres nothing I love more than watching you mortals.
If Meiun would just tell us outright we wouldn't have to guess.  :-\ Obviously this theory is BS, just wishful thinking. If it does drop, it drops from either the SF or SG, likelier the SG, with a chance of dropping LSS similar to the BBB's chance of dropping GS. Most likely, it doesn't drop at all and Meiun enjoys toying with us.

We've said it drops...
I don't remember a GM saying that.
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: Mr Pwnage on September 09, 2010, 10:44:54 PM
Quote from: Mystery on September 09, 2010, 07:32:21 PM
Quote from: Seifer on September 09, 2010, 07:15:36 PM
Quote from: Mystery on September 09, 2010, 06:27:10 PM
Quote from: Seifer on September 09, 2010, 05:29:50 PM
Theres nothing I love more than watching you mortals.
If Meiun would just tell us outright we wouldn't have to guess.  :-\ Obviously this theory is BS, just wishful thinking. If it does drop, it drops from either the SF or SG, likelier the SG, with a chance of dropping LSS similar to the BBB's chance of dropping GS. Most likely, it doesn't drop at all and Meiun enjoys toying with us.

We've said it drops...
I don't remember a GM saying that.

Dan did, passing on the word of Meiun, apparently.
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: TheLegendTamer on September 11, 2010, 03:26:16 AM
Epic... BBBs drop Gs. Then maybe SG do drop LSS.

BUT WHY MUST BLOBS BE SO LONELY  D':!!!

... ok
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: Mr Pwnage on September 11, 2010, 10:26:05 AM
Quote from: TheLegendTamer on September 11, 2010, 03:26:16 AM
Epic... BBBs drop Gs. Then maybe SG do drop LSS.

BUT WHY MUST BLOBS BE SO LONELY  D':!!!

... ok

Well I believe the player that the only player who ever received a GS from a BBB was banned for hacking so I wouldn't be so sure as to say that's a legitimate way to receive a GS.
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: EpicPhailure on September 11, 2010, 10:27:07 AM
Quote from: Mr Pwnage on September 11, 2010, 10:26:05 AM
Quote from: TheLegendTamer on September 11, 2010, 03:26:16 AM
Epic... BBBs drop Gs. Then maybe SG do drop LSS.

BUT WHY MUST BLOBS BE SO LONELY  D':!!!

... ok

Well I believe the player that the only player who ever received a GS from a BBB was banned for hacking so I wouldn't be so sure as to say that's a legitimate way to receive a GS.

Yeah GS's haven't actually been confirmed to drop from BBBs. Who knows though?
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: Lucifer on September 11, 2010, 01:03:53 PM
Quote from: EpicPhailure on September 11, 2010, 10:27:07 AM
Quote from: Mr Pwnage on September 11, 2010, 10:26:05 AM
Quote from: TheLegendTamer on September 11, 2010, 03:26:16 AM
Epic... BBBs drop Gs. Then maybe SG do drop LSS.

BUT WHY MUST BLOBS BE SO LONELY  D':!!!

... ok

Well I believe the player that the only player who ever received a GS from a BBB was banned for hacking so I wouldn't be so sure as to say that's a legitimate way to receive a GS.

Yeah GS's haven't actually been confirmed to drop from BBBs. Who knows though?
What?
Krele obtained a GS from a BBB. However controversial the topic was over whether or not it actually did drop and the screenshot was faked, he was still given a GS by Meiun wasn't he? Is this not proof?
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: T-Rok on September 11, 2010, 01:12:45 PM
Quote from: Lucifer on September 11, 2010, 01:03:53 PM
Quote from: EpicPhailure on September 11, 2010, 10:27:07 AM
Quote from: Mr Pwnage on September 11, 2010, 10:26:05 AM
Quote from: TheLegendTamer on September 11, 2010, 03:26:16 AM
Epic... BBBs drop Gs. Then maybe SG do drop LSS.

BUT WHY MUST BLOBS BE SO LONELY  D':!!!

... ok

Well I believe the player that the only player who ever received a GS from a BBB was banned for hacking so I wouldn't be so sure as to say that's a legitimate way to receive a GS.

Yeah GS's haven't actually been confirmed to drop from BBBs. Who knows though?
What?
Krele obtained a GS from a BBB. However controversial the topic was over whether or not it actually did drop and the screenshot was faked, he was still given a GS by Meiun wasn't he? Is this not proof?

Not only this, but Meiun has gone on record a few times stating that a GS can be obtained from a BBB. But he also said that the drop chance is so low that it is really highly unlikely.
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: Prosper on September 11, 2010, 01:17:24 PM
Since its in the topic here is what I think about drop system probabilities.

I think the probabilities of obtaining a drop are :

1:8 for common items dropped by blobs
1:16 for un-common drops like RD, Bandits, and some cacti drops.
1:32 for a little rarer items dropped by cacti (like froggy hat/wh) as well as SF drops except GS
1:64 would be for the GS dropping from anything other than bbb
1:128 Rare drops like DH, BC, SPIRE, SH, DKH, FEDORA, GB...
1:256 IS, slasher and GS from BBB
EDIT :
1:512 LSS and GS from BBB

EDIT how about this :

1:4 for common items dropped by blobs
1:8 for un-common drops like RD, Bandits, and some cacti drops.
1:16 for a little rarer items dropped by cacti (like froggy hat/wh) as well as SF drops except GS
1:32 would be for the GS dropping from anything other than bbb
1:64 Rare drops like DH, BC, SPIRE, SH, DKH, FEDORA, GB...
1:128 IS, slasher and GS from BBB
1:256 LSS and GS from BBB
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: Seifer on September 11, 2010, 03:03:17 PM
By my own estimations, I would say that's not even close. Much to low. Even for the more common things.
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: Prosper on September 11, 2010, 05:04:03 PM
Quote from: Seifer on September 11, 2010, 03:03:17 PM
By my own estimations, I would say that's not even close. Much to low. Even for the more common things.

EDIT how about this :

1:4 for common items dropped by blobs
1:8 for un-common drops like RD, Bandits, and some cacti drops.
1:16 for a little rarer items dropped by cacti (like froggy hat/wh) as well as SF drops except GS
1:32 would be for the GS dropping from anything other than bbb
1:64 Rare drops like DH, BC, SPIRE, SH, DKH, FEDORA, GB...
1:128 IS, slasher
1:256 LSS and GS from BBB
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: Mr Pwnage on September 11, 2010, 05:11:18 PM
Quote from: Prosper on September 11, 2010, 05:04:03 PM
Quote from: Seifer on September 11, 2010, 03:03:17 PM
By my own estimations, I would say that's not even close. Much to low. Even for the more common things.

EDIT how about this :

1:4 for common items dropped by blobs
1:8 for un-common drops like RD, Bandits, and some cacti drops.
1:16 for a little rarer items dropped by cacti (like froggy hat/wh) as well as SF drops except GS
1:32 would be for the GS dropping from anything other than bbb
1:64 Rare drops like DH, BC, SPIRE, SH, DKH, FEDORA, GB...
1:128 IS, slasher
1:256 LSS and GS from BBB

Way off still. Your original list was probably more accurate, at least in the less common item range....
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: Prosper on September 11, 2010, 06:19:15 PM
You must consider that rarity gets exponantially higher as SG spawns way less often than DS. Thats why, with similar drop rates there are a lot more IS than Slashers.
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: Mr Pwnage on September 11, 2010, 06:24:57 PM
Quote from: Prosper on September 11, 2010, 06:19:15 PM
You must consider that rarity gets exponantially higher as SG spawns way less often than DS. Thats why, with similar drop rates there are a lot more IS than Slashers.

Oh I completely understand. I'm sure spire daggers are rarer than an IS in terms of numbers. Your still way off though.
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: Matty_Richo on September 12, 2010, 07:19:17 AM
Quote from: Prosper on September 11, 2010, 05:04:03 PM
Quote from: Seifer on September 11, 2010, 03:03:17 PM
By my own estimations, I would say that's not even close. Much to low. Even for the more common things.

EDIT how about this :

1:4 for common items dropped by blobs
1:8 for un-common drops like RD, Bandits, and some cacti drops.
1:16 for a little rarer items dropped by cacti (like froggy hat/wh) as well as SF drops except GS
1:32 would be for the GS dropping from anything other than bbb
1:64 Rare drops like DH, BC, SPIRE, SH, DKH, FEDORA, GB...
1:128 IS, slasher
1:256 LSS and GS from BBB

Think about it. That would mean that assuming that 4 people fought every BBB that would mean by the law of averages that approximately for every 64 BBBs killed a GS would drop. Not even close, considering that in all of SO history there has only been 1 confirmed one you are probably looking closer to 1:1,000,000 or something. And common items from blobs wouldn't be 1:4 either because think that if every 4 blobs you killed you got a drop, not even close.
In reality, an IS drop could be the same as a Froggy from a Cactus but because bandits spawn so often and are easier to kill there are going to be way more of them dropped.
LSS would again be way rarer, if you think abobut it there have probably been over a hundred SGs spawned each with about 10 people killing them, if only one person from that has ever gotten slasher that would mean that it's close to 1:1,000 and no one has gotten LSS making it ever rarer than that.
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: Prosper on September 12, 2010, 04:47:21 PM
I've created a topic just for that and wrote a more complete theory : http://www.stick-online.com/boards/index.php?topic=1382.0
Title: Re: LSS theory
Post by: krele on September 12, 2010, 05:34:31 PM
Okay, can we cut the crap about this? GS dropped from BBB and the screenshot wasn't faked. Keep in mind that people that tried to fake screenshots got caught (and there were many of them). Back then no one knew how GS icon looked like, since no one actually had it (except for people that had their accs screwed up, but they stopped playing). That's probably a reason Meiun gave me a GS. I could look at my PC for the screenshot again if you people want to play detective though.

Also, the chance to obtain GS from BBB is 1:100,000. At least that's what Chaos told me when whole GS dropping (sry if I misunderstood something). Yeah, really small percentage. I'm so sorry I didn't buy a lottery ticket that day =/